Upcoming Season
Since the Oilers have now publicly stated that Heatley is no longer an interest of theirs, I figure I can start my evaluation of the 2009/2010 season roster. But first I have to comment on the Heatley saga. Remembering that what the media tells us is generally “only” what we are “supposed” to know, it is possible that Oilers GM Steve Tambillini made this public statement to put heat back on the Heatley camp and force them to make some sort of decision, while at the same time trying to save some face for the Oilers organization and not appear so desperate. The conspiracy theorist in me says this is just a PR move by the Oilers and that they are still trying to get Heatley, but back to my post.
Assuming we go into next season with the roster we have, I want to look at each area of the team and evaluate whether or not we are improved. Here’s what the roster looked like at the start of 08/09
MacT & friends
cole – horcoff – hemsky
cogliano – gagner – nilson
moreau – pisani – penner **(who could forget the Pisani at center experiment, geeeesh…)
pouliot – brodziak – stortini
** macintyre
souray – vishnovski
grebs – gilbert
staios – smid
** strudwick
rollie
garon
jdd
I’m going to make a few assumption with this seasons roster so bare with me.
quinn/renney
o’sullivan – horcoff – hemsky
penner – gagner – nilson
moreau – cogliano – pisani
pouliot – brule – stortini
** macintyre, jfj, reddox
souray – vishnovski
grebs – gilbert
staios – smid
** strudwick
khabi
jdd
The only major changes are:
out: cole, brodziak, rollie
in: o’sullivan, khabi
I’m going to break down the team into 5 groups to evaluate:
Coaching: This is the easy one, how could we have possibly downgraded here? Moving right along…
Goaltending: The 3 headed monster sucked huge for all 3 men involved last year. It hurt Garon and JDD the most, while Rollie (the veteran) ran with it and had a great season. Now let’s suppose we re-signed Rollie, he would be going into 09/10 as the undisputed #1 goalie this year, unlike last year where he earned it back. I don’t think he would have as good of a season this year as he did last year because of these circumstances. Not as much competition for the #1 job and not playing for a contract in a contract year (assuming we signed him for 2 seasons). Sounds like the circumstances in which he started the 07/08 season and lost the starting job. Bringing in Khabi could be a gamble, but at least he’s a few years younger, has a Stanley Cup ring, coming off a pretty nice post season run in a year where he had something to prove. I give the goaltending edge to this season simply based on the fact that I think Rollie would have had a mediocre year this season as an Oiler and Khabi should be at least as good as Rollie was last year.
Defense: As pointed out, we are relatively the same personnel wise, but again there are a few other elements to consider. Souray had a great year and I expect the same, Lubo hopefully is ok health wise and added another dimension to our team D and powerplay, Staios had a pretty solid year last year all things considered and I am expecting the same. Now as far as Gilbert and Grebs go, say what you want about their contracts but it looks like they are both here for this season so what I suggest is that they each have another season of NHL experience under their belts and will both be better defensively and offensively this season. Same can be said for Smid (assuming he is re-signed and stays with the Oil), another NHL year of experience, and this kid is looking better each year. I say we are improved based on the kids gaining experience and vets being at least as good as last season.
Forwards – top 6: This one is tough. The only real change here is Cole vs O’Sullivan. From an expectations standpoint I think a year ago we all expected a lot more from Cole. I don’t think we have the same expectations from O’Sullivan so the comparison is slightly skewed. Since we did get a glimpse of how O’Sullivan fits in with team I suppose our expectations can be based on what we know this year, rather than what we thought last year with Cole. I would have to say we are about the same. The optimist in me believes that Horcoff is going to have a great season this year, Hemmer is going to dominate and gel with who ever gets put on his line, Gagner is going to have a breakout year, and Penner is going to have a pulse. The pessimist in me says we are about the same this season bordering on worse. Let’s call, it even.
Forwards – bottom 6: With Brodziak gone and no NHL seasoned replacement it’s hard to argue that we will be even equal at the dot. On the wings I don’t see any changes unless someone has a great season. I would say we are worse simply because our already terrible faceoff percentage will likely be worse.
Based on these 5 categories I say we are improved in 3/5, the same in 1/5, and worse in 1/5. However with our forwards being the “same” and “worse”, I don’t see how we are going to score many goals or win any special teams battles. This team is a couple forwards short of being real playoff team. If we had another center to backup Horcoff, and our D stays healthy we could be a solid PK team again. If we had a sniper for the first line we could have a PP. Seems to me we need a Heatley and a Malholtra, and they both could be had before the season if the planets were to all align. What do you think?